Winners and losers from Giannis Antetokounmpo re-signing with Bucks - NBC Sports

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Giannis Antetokounmpo decided to stay home in Milwaukee, in part because he believes he can win there (his biggest concern), but the fact the Bucks can guarantee him $228.2 million over the next five years didn’t hurt.

Antetokounmpo’s decision was the biggest player decision in the NBA since LeBron James decided to come to Los Angeles, and there have been reactions and reverberations around the league. As with every big move, there are some winners and losers, and while there are far more winners in this case let’s break it down.

Winner: Giannis Antetokounmpo

Duh. The man just locked in $228.2 million. Even Steve Ballmer thinks that’s a lot of money. Antetokounmpo also gets to stay in the only city he has called home in the United States — he’s said he’s not drawn to the bright lights of Los Angeles or Miami — and the first city he and his family ever felt safe, comfortable, and welcomed.

Antetokounmpo used his leverage to pressure the Bucks to upgrade the roster and only signed this deal after being convinced that the Bucks were serious about winning — and willing to spend to do it. Antetokounmpo knew what he wanted and got it.

Winner: Milwaukee Bucks and Bucks’ fans

The Milwaukee Bucks locked up the two-time reigning MVP as he heads into his prime, a move that should make them contenders for each of the next five years (if they’re not, it’s more about the Bucks front office than Antetokounmpo). That’s a win for Milwaukee, a win for their fans, and a win for small and mid-sized markets around the league. Do most things right, build a winner around them, and you can keep a superstar.

This does not guarantee the Bucks a title in the next few years. According to odds provided by our partner, PointsBet, it’s just slightly better than 50/50 that Antetokounmpo wins a ring with the Bucks.

💰 Giannis has 228 million reasons to be happy in Milwaukee over the next five years. 💰

But @PointsBetUSA is talking titles. Do you think the Bucks capture a championship during his new deal? 🏆 pic.twitter.com/S8jVC7Q6WO

— NBC Sports Bet (@NBCSportsBet) December 16, 2020

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Losers: Miami/Dallas/Toronto

These teams are not really losers, but they are teams that now have to recalibrate. All of them kept cap space or trade options open to land Antetokounmpo if he decided to move on from Milwaukee. Now each one has to adjust.

Miami is in the best position. They already used their cap space to lock up Bam Adebayo, and they have a lot of young players that would be interesting to a team looking to trade a superstar. This is a team that made the Finals a year ago, is still poised to chase another star (via trade or sign-and-trade), and will be in that position for years.

Toronto is retooling the roster around Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby at the forward spots, and they locked up Fred VanVleet this offseason, but the Raptors now need to strike a deal with Masai Ujiri and then go find their next star.

Dallas is in the toughest spot of the three because they lack picks and young players they are willing to give up in a trade, and this free agent class has gotten a lot weaker in the past few days. There’s no clear path now to Dallas adding a third star because…

Loser: 2021 Free Agency

LeBron James signed an extension to stay with the Lakers, and as expected Anthony Davis did the same — and no short contracts, the Lakers have them for three years. Paul George signed a max deal to stay with the Clippers. Now Antetokounmpo is off the market.

The much-hyped free agent class of 2021 suddenly looks very thin. Kawhi Leonard is the biggest name, but with the George re-signing in Los Angeles — and the fact Leonard forced himself back to SoCal — it is widely expected around the NBA Leonard will stay with the Clippers. Who are the best free agents after that? Rudy Gobert, and maybe Victor Oladipo depending upon how he plays this season. Those are good players, and this is a deeper free agent class than this past one, but the franchise-changing talent at the top is gone. This class is not nearly as sexy.

Which leads to…

Winner: Houston Rockets (and maybe the Washington Wizards)

With teams not able to find a superstar through free agency, suddenly James Harden looks a little bit better. He’s a former MVP and one of the top five players on the planet, a guy who can drop 30 a night and do it efficiently. The concerns about him being 31 with a lot of miles on that body (on and off the court), the concerns about having to re-sign him in two years at age 33, the concerns about how well he plays with other stars are all still there, but for teams that don’t have options he looks a little better. Houston continues to ask for more than anyone will offer for The Beard right now, but this helps the Rockets’ leverage.

Miami has said it is interested, and if it can get a deal done for Tyler Herro, some other young players, salary guys (Kelly Olynyk, Andre Iguodala), and a couple of picks, it might well be worth it.

Unless the Heat want to wait and see what the Wizards do with Bradley Beal. Like Houston, Washington is sitting in a better spot to trade its star now, except the Wizards have no intention of doing so — at least in the short term. They want to see if they can make a playoff run with Beal and Russell Westbrook. But if that goes sideways by the trade deadline, or by next offseason, Washington may feel differently, and it will be in a strong position.

Winner: Jrue Holiday

Antetokounmpo just signed a max contract, and Khris Middleton will make $35.5 million next season on top of that. Throw in $13.3 million for Brook Lopez at center, a combined $12.3 million for D.J. Augustin and Pat Connaughton, and contracts to round out the roster, and suddenly the Bucks are a team over the tax line and with limited ways to improve for the season after this one. This means they MUST re-sign Holiday (something they needed to do anyway after giving up a boatload of picks to land him).

Holiday, who has a $26.7 million player option next season, has all the leverage and will likely get a contract that starts at about that number and extends out for years. Holiday is good, and should be a better playoff fit in the backcourt for the Bucks than Eric Bledsoe, but he has the leverage to get paid like a superstar now.

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Winners and losers from Giannis Antetokounmpo re-signing with Bucks - NBC Sports
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