Every week, I’ll be writing a comprehensive primer on every NFL matchup and all of the relevant players, matchups, pace and playcalling notes, and injuries. It covers everything you need to know when setting your lineups. But since that article is massive and requires a full pot of coffee, we’re also going to offer these more focused matchup overviews to help you prepare for Thursday Night Football.
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New Orleans Saints vs. Arizona Cardinals
Pace and playcalling notes
- This game should operate at roadrunner speed. The Cardinals are second in neutral pace, followed by the Saints checking in at 8th.
- The offensive play calling will differ. Arizona has been run-balanced (17th neutral passing rate), while the Saints are a run-centric team (eighth in neutral rushing rate).
Quarterbacks
NO QB: TBD on whether we see another game from Andy Dalton or if Jameis Winston reassumes the starting gig. Dennis Allen has stated they’re taking the starting decision up to kickoff. Fun times. Dalton has played better than his fantasy finishes have indicated (QB23, QB26, QB22). He’s third in PFF passing grade, 17th in adjusted completion rate, and 16th in big-time throw rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). Winston has fared better as a fantasy option with QB7, QB26, and QB14 outings, but he has been worse from a real football perspective. Winston ranks 19th in PFF passing grade and 29th in adjusted completion rate, but he’s flashed the trademark big strikes ranking third in big-time throw rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). Whichever player is under center returns to a surprisingly tough matchup against Arizona. Since Week 4, this pass defense has tightened up. They are eighth in pass defense DVOA while also ranking inside the top 12 in passing yards per game (tenth-fewest), EPA (eighth-lowest), and explosive pass rate (11th-lowest). Dalton and Winston are only mid to low-end QB2s.
Kyler Murray: Murray’s rushing equity has helped prop up his fantasy value. He’s QB6 in total points thanks to ranking sixth in rushing yards (among quarterbacks). His performance as a passer has been terrible. Terrible is probably still being kind. Among 38 quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks, he’s 27th in PFF passing grade, 36th in yards per attempt, and 29th in big-time throw rate. Because of his legs and a soft matchup, Murray remains a top-ten fantasy quarterback. The Saints’ secondary has been disappointing, ranking 21st in pass defense DVOA while sitting top-ten in passing touchdown rate, passer rating, and yards per attempt allowed.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara: Kamara has been on a tear since his return from injury. Over the last two games, he’s been the RB8 and RB10, averaging 27 touches and 159 total yards. He’s handled a ridiculous 26.8% target share averaging 7.5 targets and 58 receiving yards. His yards after contact per attempt have increased in each of the last three games he’s played from 2.20 to 2.63. While the Cardinals’ secondary has played well, you can still run on this defense. Arizona is 26th in explosive run rate while ranking 28th in second-level yards and 21st in open-field yards. Kamara will have a field day against a defense that is DEAD LAST in DVOA against receiving backs giving up the most receiving touchdowns and sixth-highest yards per reception. Kamara is a top-five running back.
Mark Ingram: Ingram isn’t playable with Kamara back. Since Week 5, he’s averaged 27% of the snaps with 9.5 touches and 36.5 total yards. He has only seen a 3.6% target share and an 18.8% route run rate without any opportunities in the red zone.
James Conner: Conner has been listed as a game-time decision. I doubt he will play this week. It feels like Kingsbury being cagey. In the three games, Conner has played at least 60% of snaps, he has averaged 16.3 touches and 63 total yards. He’s the RB34 in fantasy points per game, ranking 31st in evaded tackles, 35th in juke rate, and 35th in yards created per touch. If he’s active, Conner is a risky RB3.
Darrel Williams: Williams has been ruled out.
Eno Benjamin: Benjamin practiced in full on Wednesday. He isn’t listed on the injury report, so expect a full workload. Last week in a plus matchup, Benjamin crapped the bed with 87% of the snaps, 18 touches, and 65 total yards. He managed only 2.36 yards after contact per attempt and a 41.6 elusive rating. After producing a long run of six yards and 0.72 yards per route run against Seattle, don’t be surprised if Arizona works in Keaontay Ingram more this week. Since Week 4, New Orleans has resumed shutting down the run as they are tenth in rushing yards per game and 13th in explosive run rate allowed. They are ninth in second-level yards and 13th in DVOA against receiving backs (fourth-lowest yards per reception). Benjamin is an RB3.
Keaontay Ingram: Ingram could work in tandem with Benjamin this week or be regulated to a breather role. His 3.6 yards per carry, 2.19 yards after contact per attempt, and zero breakaway runs in the preseason don’t inspire much confidence. Those numbers, though, sell Ingram short. In his final season at USC, he was 22nd in yards after contact per attempt and 41st in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 125 carries). Ingram is a low-floor RB4.
Wide Receivers
Michael Thomas: Thomas has been ruled out.
Jarvis Landry: Landry has been ruled out.
Chris Olave: In Weeks 1-4, Olave commanded a 26.2% target share (wow) and a 41.9% share of the team’s air yards. He averaged 9.2 targets, 5.2 receptions, and 83.8 receiving yards, with an outstanding 2.46 yards per route run. Overall he’s seventh in yards per route run and sixth in PFF receiving grade (minimum 20 targets) as the WR17 in fantasy points per game. He’ll run about 77% of his routes on the perimeter against Byron Murphy (61.5% catch rate, 94.4 passer rating) and Marco Wilson (61.1% catch rate, 82.2 passer rating). Olave has been a stud. He’s a WR2.
Marquez Callaway: Since Week 4, Callaway has been pressed into action with the Saints overrun by injuries. He’s responded by doing little to nothing. He’s seen an 18.8% target share (5.3 targets per game) without eclipsing 60 receiving yards in any game. His 1.15 yards per route despite an 86.3% route run rate is mediocre. Even in a bye week crunch, Callaway isn’t a player I would be rolling into my lineup. Olave is likely to gobble up targets while Callaway gets his cardio in running about 94% of his routes against Murphy and Wilson on the outside.
Tre’Quan Smith: Smith will likely take over the slot role with Keith Kirkwood looking likely to miss this game. Over the last two games with Smith also called into action, he’s been unimpressive with a 12.5% target share and 1.13 yards per route run (73.4% route run rate). Smith likely matches with Murphy inside when the Saints go three wide. Murphy has played outside corner except when teams utilize 11 personnel then he goes inside while Antonio Hamilton helps out on the outside. The Saints could bump their use of three wide this week to sacrifice Smith to Murphy. This would give Olave better matchups on the outside against Wilson and Hamilton (career 67.1% catch rate, 110.1 passer rating). Don’t play Smith.
DeAndre Hopkins: There’s no disputing that Hopkins wasn’t at his peak anymore last year, but he wasn’t bad, either. Hopkins drew a 20.5% target share (35th) while ranking 15th in PFF receiving grade and 33rd in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets). He was the WR20 in fantasy points per game, ranking 30th in route win rate. He’ll likely reprise his perimeter role, running 80% or more routes on the boundary. He’ll see Bradley Roby (45.7% catch rate, 77.3 passer rating) and Paulson Adebo (78.6% catch rate, 156.0 passer rating) for most of the day. Hopkins is a WR2 with WR1 upside in his first game back.
Rondale Moore: Moore should continue vacuuming up targets in Week 7. Over the last two weeks, he’s seen a 24.3% target share (nine targets per game) with 1.34 yards per route run as the WR24 and WR34 in weekly scoring. He’s seen three red zone targets in three games played. He’ll run about 83% of his routes against the dust ball known as Chris Harris. Once upon a time, Harris was one of the best slot corners in the league. That fairy tale has long since passed. Harris has allowed all nine targets in his coverage to be secured with a 103.2 passer rating this year. Last year he gave up a 62.7% catch rate and 95.1 passer rating. Moore is a strong WR3.
A.J. Green: Green is a fossil. He’s the WR104 with 56 receiving yards and a 10.4% target share. He shouldn’t be rostered or played in any league. Any.
Robbie Anderson: Anderson isn’t playable this week. Kliff Kingsbury has stated he’ll be on a snap count if he’s even active.
Tight Ends
Taysom Hill: Hill is slowly on his way to debunking my disdain for his positional eligibility, as he’s up to 31 snaps as a receiver (35 at QB). Hill remains stalled at 3.6 routes per game with only one reception for the year. Hill is the TE5 for the year, thanks to two massive outings. In the other three games, he finished as the TE50, TE16, and TE28. He’s averaging 5.3 rushes and 53.2 rushing yards per game which is skewed by his 112-yard performance. Hill has three games with 35 or more rushing yards. He’s tied with Kamara with five red zone rushing opportunities. He is a weekly home run swing or whiff at the tight end position.
Zach Ertz: Ertz continues to prove that age is just a number. By tight-end standards, he’s not ready for the nursing home just yet, but in his age-32 season, he’s the TE3 in fantasy points per game. He’s managed a 21.6% target share (sixth-best) while ranking second in route participation and fourth in air yard share. He’s third in red zone targets and 21st in yards per route run. Mute your expectations for this week, though. New Orleans dominates tight ends, ranking first in DVOA with the third-lowest catch rate, fifth-lowest receiving yards, and second-lowest fantasy points per game allowed. Considering bye weeks and the state of the tight end position, you’re starting Ertz based on projected volume alone, but he’s likely a touchdown or bust option this week.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
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*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, Rotoviz, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*
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Thursday Night Football Primer & Start/Sit Advice: Saints vs. Cardinals (Week 7) - FantasyPros
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