In 2020, a week now feels like an eternity. At least, that's how Week 12 in the NFL went thanks to the Steeler-Ravens matchup -- a that was originally scheduled for Thanksgiving night -- being rescheduled three times due to COVID-19 and finally being played on Wednesday afternoon. With that game now in the rearview mirror and Pittsburgh still undefeated on the season, we can wage forward into whatever Week 13 has in store for us.
As we do that, we'll be looking to build off a strong week on the moneyline where we went 12-4 over the course of the holiday. We will, however, be aiming for higher production against the spread where we went 5-9-1 in Week 12. To get us started, we'll be looking at my five locks of the week. All NFL odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.
*Washington at Pittsburgh and Dallas at Baltimore will be added once the lines are released
Locks of the Week
Cleveland at Tennessee
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Despite being 8-3, the Cleveland Browns haven't exactly shown that they can put teams away. Kevin Stefanski's club is 1-5 ATS in their last six games and is 4-2 SU over that stretch. Those four wins have been by a combined total of 13 points. That shouldn't come as too much of a surprise as the Browns have a -21 point differential making them just the second team in the Super Bowl era to go 8-3 SU or better and be outscored by their opponents through 11 games (1987 Chargers). The Browns are also 1-10 ATS in their last eleven road games. When you combined those flaws with the fact that Tennessee is starting to heat up -- back-to-back wins as an underdog -- it's hard not to ride with the hot hand.
Projected score: Tennessee 27, Cleveland 17
My pick: Tennessee -6
Detroit at Chicago
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
I simply have no faith in what Chicago brings to the table offensively and it really doesn't matter who is under center. Mitchell Trubisky looked like the same quarterback that was benched for Nick Foles earlier this season, despite head coach Matt Nagy claiming he's seen a change in the former first-round pick. Trubisky was admittedly able to perform well late against this Detroit team in the Week 1 opener, but, following the firing of head coach Matt Patricia and GM Bob Quinn, I expect the Lions to come out with a little more fire in Week 13.
Projected score: Detroit 24, Chicago 21
My pick: Detroit +3
Indianapolis at Houston
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Derrick Henry and the Titans were able to smack around the Colts in Week 12, but this group is still a strong defense. If they are able to get DeForest Buckner (COVID list) and others back in the fold this week, they should return right back to being a contender in the AFC. Even if they aren't back or less than 100%, Indy should be able to handle a Texans team that just lost No. 1 receiver Will Fuller and No. 1 corner Bradley Roby for the season due to PED suspensions. That doesn't give much wiggle room for Deshaun Watson, who has helped the Texans cover three straight coming into this matchup. Against the Texans, the Colts are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings (including postseason) and 7-0-1 in their last eight games in Houston. Indy is also 6-0-1 ATS following their last seven double-digit home losses.
Projected score: Indianapolis 30, Houston 24
My pick: Indianapolis -3.5
L.A. Rams at Arizona
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (FOX)
Against the Patriots last week, Kyler Murray did seem like he had trouble getting the ball down the field with that injured shoulder. The Cardinals have also struggled recently, going 0-4 ATS since their bye. Those struggles look like they'll continue against a Rams team looking to rebound off a surprising loss at the hands of the 49ers. Los Angeles has not lost consecutive games this season and they have a tremendous history against Arizona under Sean McVay. The Rams are 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS. Not only that, but they cover by an average of 15.2 points and win by an average of 23.3 points per game.
Projected score: Los Angeles 27, Arizona 21
My pick: L.A. Rams -3
Philadelphia at Green Bay
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Packers were toying with the Chicago Bears in a game that was never really in any serious doubt. Green Bay dominated against Mitchell Trubisky and I expect similar results against a quarterback, Carson Wentz, who is also coming into this game ice cold. The Eagles leading man under center has been sacked 46 times this season, which is eleven more than the next player. His 15 interceptions are also four higher than any other player. He hasn't shown much to think that he'll turn things around at Lambeau Field this week, which makes the Packers a strong way lean. As we're now in December, it's worth looking at Aaron Rodgers' career statistics at home when kickoff temperatures are below freezing. The Packers great is 18-3 SU and 15-6 ATS in that setting with a passer rating of 112.0.
Projected score: Green Bay 33, Philadelphia 17
My pick: Green Bay -8.5
Rest of the Bunch
New Orleans at Atlanta
Projected score: New Orleans 24, Atlanta 21
My pick: New Orleans -2.5
Cincinnati at Miami
Projected score: Miami 23, Cincinnati 10
My pick: Miami -11.5
Jacksonville at Minnesota
Projected score: Minnesota 27, Jacksonville 14
My pick: Minnesota -10
Las Vegas at N.Y. Jets
Projected score: Las Vegas 23, N.Y. Jets 17
My pick: N.Y. Jets +8
N.Y. Giants at Seattle
Projected score: Seattle 28, N.Y. Giants 13
My pick: Seattle -10
New England at L.A. Chargers
Projected score: L.A. Chargers 24, New England 21
My pick: L.A. Chargers
Denver at Kansas City
Projected score: Kansas City 31, Devner 16
My pick: Kansas City -14
Washington at Pittsburgh
Projected score: TBD
My pick: TBD
Buffalo at San Francisco
Projected score: San Francisco 20, Buffalo 17
My pick: San Francisco +1
Dallas at Baltimore
Projected score: TBD
My pick: TBD
Picks Record
Against the spread in Week 12: 5-9-1
ATS overall: 83-86-6
Straight up in Week 12: 12-4
SU overall: 116-58-1
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