GREENVILLE, S.C. -- Now it's actually starting to feel real.
Mike Krzyzewski's finale of a season has been drawn out, as expected, but the closing number was always in the distance over the past four months. The NCAA Tournament was always too far off to see. December flipped to January, then January unfurled for February, and it seemed the weeks moved a bit faster. By the time we got to the first Saturday of March, the magnitude of this season -- a return to normal in many ways -- began to show itself. Duke lost at home to North Carolina, giving us as stunning a defeat that has ever occurred in that rivalry. That brought feelings of mortality. Days later, the ACC Tournament introduced the elimination element of the postseason, and with Virginia Tech upsetting the Blue Devils in the championship game, a warning sounded for what easily could await in a matter of weeks.
If not days.
Now that Duke has moved past Cal State Fullerton and is set to play Sunday against No. 7 Michigan State at 5:15 p.m. ET, the potential for all of this to dramatically end has come to the forefront. The Blue Devils are 6.5-point favorites over Sparty, but two of their past three meetings have gone to Michigan State. That includes the 2019 Elite Eight, when Duke had No. 1 overall pick Zion Williamson and fellow First Team All-American RJ Barrett.
Tom Izzo got the best of Coach K that day. Will he end his career in a mere few hours? Does not knowing this make it any easier?
Izzo and K have circled each other's orbit in the sport for nearly 25 years. Publicly -- and behind the scenes -- they've been as vocal about what should or should not be changed in men's college basketball. They share an ethos. For the 16th and final time time on Sunday, it's K vs. Izzo. Two Hall of Famers, a combined 151 NCAA Tournament wins between them -- a record for a coaching matchup in an NCAA Tournament game.
"You can be friends, but for 40 minutes, you're not," Izzo said. "The game is bigger than normal ... we've both had some success. They've had more than we have, but we've both had some success. It's kind of hard for me to prepare. Everybody's saying, 'Are you going to end his career on this note? Are you going to do this? Are you going to do that?' First of all, I'm not going to do any of that. The players will hopefully find a way to win. But just think what he's going through and his players are going through. Emotionally, it's got to be an incredible -- I can't even imagine."
Krzyzewski is not only looking to win to extend his final season, he's also one victory away from 1,200. He brings with him a 12-3 record against Izzo.
"I'm not that big on coach versus coach records," Krzyzewski said Saturday.
Even still, Izzo is an absurd 23-6 in his career on one day of prep in the NCAA Tournament. It's fitting for Duke to need to push past MSU if it's to keep this season and K's career going. This is the sixth straight season Michigan State plays Duke. It's also the sixth time Izzo and Krzyzewski are facing off in the tournament, a record for coach meetings.
"I didn't realize I played him six [years] in a row," Izzo said. "Who the hell scheduled that?"
The players change, but Krzyzewski and Izzo famously don't vary up their stuff that much. These two have battled each other 11 times since 2010. That's more nonconference matchups than any other two power-conference schools in that span. They know the other's tendencies about as well as any coaches not sharing a conference could. What's striking is how much respect they have for the other, yet you'd hard-pressed to find five coaches who are more vicious competitors. All niceties halt once the ball is tipped.
"There's going to be weird emotions on both sides of the scorers table," Izzo said. "I can't even imagine what it's been like for Mike. ... But for 40 minutes, I'll bet you Mike wants to beat the hell out of me, and I bet you I want to beat the hell out of him. And what happens after, only time will tell."
As for the game, it could be terrific ... or we could see a Duke runaway. The Blue Devils rank No. 11 at KenPom.com; Michigan State is hanging out at No. 39. Duke is sixth in offensive efficiency; MSU is 36th. Duke ranks 40th in defensive efficiency; MSU is 59th. Duke has been far more consistent. If you were picking who you'd want on your team and had both rosters available to you, Duke's Paolo Banchero, A.J. Griffin, Mark Williams and Wendell Moore Jr. might be your choices before getting to anyone on Michigan State. But that won't guarantee victory.
The one thing Michigan State clearly has over Duke is a bench, which Krzyzewski noted on Saturday.
"They have a lot of depth," he said. "They have four big guys who can give you different looks. So holding our own on the boards and staying out of foul trouble, making sure that Mark and Paolo stay out of foul trouble and how we all handle the physicality of the game."
The scene should be speckled in blue at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Greenville is a three and a half-hour drive from Durham, North Carolina. There will be more Duke fans in the building than Michigan State by a wide margin. But now every round brings the tangible possibility of an ending. It's Izzo. It's Michigan State. Duke is not bequeathed entry into the regional semifinals merely because everyone knows this is K's final year. His team is going to have to earn it. That's good. It's exactly how he wants it. Izzo, too. Toughness required. Don't make it easy.
We're 40 minutes away from one of two scenarios: a Duke exhale as the Coach K culmination continues toward the Sweet 16 in San Francisco, or an upset-incited end to arguably the greatest coaching career ever in basketball. If that happens, it would be no surprise for Izzo to be the one to end it.
Hard to imagine more urgency and stakes, ever, for a second-round game than this one.
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